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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.